Image: The Penguin, HBO
Last month it was reported that several big budget Warner Bros. IP series were being rebranded HBO originals, after originally being planned as Max originals. These included the “Harry Potter” series, the “It” prequel “Welcome to Derry”, and the Green Lantern adaptation “Lanterns.” This week, “The Penguin” and “Dune: Prophecy” joined the list of formerly Max originals that will now premiere on the linear HBO channel.
The HBO brand is associated with prestige and quality. But this isn’t just a distinction that matters within the industry, HBO titles overperform when we look at the share of demand audiences give these titles on Max. HBO originals make up the largest share of series available to stream on Max (16.5%) and drive an outsize share of demand for shows on the platform (22.2%). Contrast this with Max originals which underperform. Max originals’ 11.5% share of the platform’s TV catalog only accounts for 8.8% of demand for shows on the platform.
In fact, among the 5 channels with the largest share of demand for original content on Max, Max originals stand out as the only group whose demand share falls short of its share of catalog. Cartoon Network and Adult Swim originals drive a share of demand twice as large as their share of catalog on Max. Original series from Discovery Channel have a slightly larger share of demand on Max than the share of catalog that these titles make up.
If we zoom in on the granular cross platform viewing habits of the audiences of HBO and Max shows, we see distinct audience behavior between these two groups. People who watched an HBO series are more likely to watch another HBO show than people who watched a Max original. People who watched a Max original are more likely to watch another Max original than audiences coming from an HBO series. Additionally, viewers who watched an HBO original were more likely to watch one of the Dune movies or a Batman title than viewers who watched a Max original, which seems to validate the decision to move “The Penguin” and “Dune: Prophecy” under the HBO umbrella.
Rebranding highly anticipated shows like “The Penguin” and “Dune Prophecy” will likely only widen the performance gap between HBO branded content and Max originals. In May, “Dune” ranked as the third most in-demand movie on Max, behind only “Mad Max: Fury Road” and “War for the Planet of the Apes” - two films enjoying renewed attention from new movies in their respective franchises. “The Batman” (which immediately precedes “The Penguin” chronologically) ranked as the ninth most in-demand movie on the platform for the month. High audience demand for these movies bodes well for the small screen spinoffs now set to air on HBO.
