The narrative structure of Game of Thrones offers an intriguing parallel to the streaming industry's evolution. The blockbuster series began with a wide array of compelling characters - from noble northmen to villainous royalty to deposed would-be matriarchs (oh my!). Even common people within the sprawling high fantasy tale generated outsized impact on the story. This vast array of viewpoints created deep thematic resonance and intrigue.
As the series approached its endgame, the story's focus naturally constricted. The plot threads needed to converge, leading to the decline of once-formidable characters through death (RIP Ned and Robb Stark) or diminished importance (what did they do to you, Tyrion Lannister?!), making room for central players to conclude the tale.
This mirrors the streaming industry's maturation. What began as a widespread landscape of major streaming video on demand (SVOD) competitors continues to consolidate through three primary mechanisms: voluntary opt-out (such as Sony favoring the content arms dealer approach), involuntary opt-out (as with Quibi's swift demise), and merger and acquisition/strategic partnerships. Warner Bros. Discovery CEO David Zaslav highlighted this trend, noting that 2025 could "offer a pace of change and an opportunity for consolidation... that would provide a real positive and accelerated impact on this industry."
To understand this impact, we must examine how the major players' content libraries might work together. Let's explore potential combinations among NBCUniversal, Paramount Global, Warner Bros. Discovery, and Netflix.
Netflix & Paramount Global
Paramount Global is currently in the process of being sold to David Ellison’s Skydance pending government approval. According to multiple reports, Ellison is bullish on Paramount’s streaming endeavors long-term, but the company may still be in search of strategic partners. Meanwhile, Netflix has achieved record growth, adding nearly 19 million subscribers in Q4 2024 and 41 million customers throughout the year. Wall Street now values Netflix above $400 billion—surpassing Walt Disney, Comcast, Warner Bros. Discovery, and Fox combined.
While Netflix traditionally builds internally rather than pursuing major outside acquisitions, market evolution has already pushed the company to embrace previously avoided strategies like advertising, sports and even movie theaters to a degree. A partnership between these companies would lead the field in several key 2024 categories:
- US corporate demand share (20.7%), which accounts for all original TV content produced under each company’s umbrella. This can help effectively value a conglomerate’s legacy and library content in aggregate.
- US total catalog share (27.1%), which measures a streamer’s entire library including both original and licensed movies and TV series.
- Global streaming original share (37.8%), which accounts for all of the original programming produced by each streaming service.
The logistics of how this hypothetical would work remain unknown. Would Paramount+ content appear on Netflix domestically, worldwide or in markets the former is not yet currently in? Would the two services be offered through a discounted bundle option beyond Verizon’s +play offer? The two companies have enjoyed mutually beneficial international distribution agreements in recent years on key shows. Either way, it would help address strengths and weakness across both companies.
This combination would provide the younger and female-skewing US library for Netflix with older-male skewing content through Star Trek and Taylor Sheridan shows, plus major sports rights that Netflix has been reluctant to pony up for given the cost. Paramount's Nickelodeon would strengthen Netflix's animation offerings, which have proven to be effective global demand generators on the TV side. On the film side, however, the streamer still struggles to match its theatrical rivals in family friendly original animated movies. Access to Paw Patrol and upcoming Avatar: The Last Airbender movies would help.
In this scenario, Paramount+ would likely improve its UCAN churn rate, which has hovered above 5% over the last four quarters, according to Parrot Analytics’ Streaming Economics, while enjoying much increased distribution scale.
Warner Bros. Discovery & NBCUniversal
Netflix doesn’t exactly need any help at the moment, so let’s turn our attention to some legacy media players still attempting to figure out the digital future. Speculation surrounding a potential combination of Warner Bros. Discovery and Comcast’s NBCUniversal has existed for some time now. Some believe the latter’s recent efforts to spin off the majority of its cable networks into a new company and the former’s restructuring into two units, Global Linear Networks and Streaming & Studios, helps clear the way for easier transactions in the future. Then again, Comcast CEO Brian Roberts has said “I love the company we have,” while dousing the flames of M&A whispers. Still, you can never say never in this business.
Despite regulatory challenges—particularly around combining CNN and MSNBC—this merger would create impressive market share:
- 26.0% corporate demand share (first place)
- 24.1% total catalog share (first place)
- 5.8% streaming original share (fifth place)
As Warners has been forced to pay down a mountain of debt, its significantly cut back on content expenses. That’s reflected in WBD’s declining demand share for licensed and original TV series on streaming when compared to major rivals such as Netflix and Disney.
But Comcast has oodles of cash on hand and will receive at least $8.6 billion from Disney for the remaining stake in Hulu. After NBCU, which has a programming history that dates back to the 1940s, fell behind Netflix in corporate demand share for the first time ever last year, a change may be needed. Max already reversed course from a previous regime’s decisions and has made itself available via Amazon Prime Video Channels. The sub-scale Peacock might consider following suit.
A Max-Peacock combination would serve 79.56 million high-ARPU UCAN customers as of Q3 2024, second only to Netflix's 89.63 million. Max's international expansion - which continued in November with a rollout in key APAC markets - could provide Peacock with needed global scale, while combining the reality/unscripted programming from Discovery and Bravo would create a dominant position in that genre.
Warner Bros. Discovery & Paramount Global
Unlike Comcast and Disney, which boast lucrative supplemental revenue divisions such as wireless internet and parks, Warner Bros. Discovery and Paramount Global are overly reliant on linear TV to generate the bulk of annual revenues. Both companies swallowed multi-billion write-downs on their pay-TV assets in 2024, reflecting the stark new reality and difficult future. Both companies very much need to scale consistent profitability across their respective streaming endeavors.
A partnership between these companies would achieve:
- 28.0% corporate demand share (first place)
- 23.4% total catalog share (first place)
- 8.3% streaming original share (fourth place)
Despite a remarkably strong second half of 2024 with consecutive hits Tulsa King S2, Special Ops: Lioness S2 and Landman, Paramount+ ranks just seventh in total catalog demand share. Max, meanwhile, ranks seventh in streaming original share. From an audience demographic standpoint, Sheridan’s older-male skewing core audience would help reverse Max’s recent trends with that key viewer target.
This combination would create a powerhouse movie portfolio, combining DC superheroes, horror films, family-friendly properties like Sonic and Looney Tunes, plus filmmaker-driven hits like Barbie and Gladiator II, alongside Mission: Impossible and Top Gun franchises. Similar to the last combo, there would also be an impressive bench of reality programming here. The merged entity would serve approximately 79.4 million UCAN subscribers as of Q3.
It wouldn’t solve either company’s growing pay-TV issues, though WBD’s lack of a broadcast network would help grease the regulatory wheels. It’s also unclear how CNN and CBS News would fit together. But this combo would provide a path to notable streaming power.
NBCU & Paramount Global
NBCU and Paramount Global already work together via SkyShowtime, a European streaming joint venture. Naturally, this lays much-needed groundwork for an expanded streaming partnership should both sides so choose. However, this may be one of the weaker possible matches at first glance:
- 20.6% corporate demand share (first place)
- 17.8% total catalog share (second place)
- 6.9% streaming original share (fifth place)
Their combined TV demand share (9.4%) would still trail both Hulu (10.6%) and Netflix (10.7%) and their combined movie demand share (8.4%) would only tie with Amazon Prime Video for first place. The merged sports portfolio, however, would help give ESPN a run for its money. Yet regulators would force the sale of one of the two broadcast networks (CBS, NBC), removing a major contributor to the combined entity’s TV roster. Paramount+'s unclear international strategy also presents challenges for global expansion. Still, bundles are proven to help reduce churn. But unlocking increased engagement is not a given.
The streaming industry's consolidation appears inevitable as it matures from adolescence to early adulthood. Like Game of Thrones, we'll see fewer major players emerge. Success will depend on finding complementary partnerships that enhance both content offerings and market position while executing creative strategies that address core consumer needs. Success may also depend on acknowledging failure and getting out before sinking even more money into a losing strategy.
Each potential combination offers distinct advantages and challenges. The winning formula will require more than mere scale—it demands clear vision, effective execution, and strategic alignment with evolving consumer preferences in an increasingly competitive marketplace.
